Covid-19: Herd Immunity by June?
Experts say the US could of had 8 times more Covid-19 cases than Officially Recorded, but is that true and does it hold true too our current Daily Case Counts?
If we look at the Death to Case Ratio Last Winter and Spring Compared to now (12/20), we surely see a Higher Case to Death Rate before than Presently, which showed we missed allot of Cases maybe even up to Ten Times those Cases at the time.
“Back in June, CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield estimated there were 10 times as many COVID-19 cases in the U.S. as had been counted.”
However the 8 Times more Cases Claim is surely compensating more for the Covid-19 Cases we missed last Spring and Winter, and I personally would not consider it anymore than 5 times the daily official case count currently, but even potentially only 2 times more Daily Total Cases than Daily Officially Documented Cases currently. But at even only missing half the current cases (and we are probably missing more) we will hit the bare minimum for Covid-19 Herd Immunity by June 2021.
The Official Daily Cases to Death Ratio is getting US currently around 1%, which is higher than it should be, and if the True Covid-19 Death Rate was 0.2% that means we are currently missing 4 out of 5 Cases! (meaning 1 Million US Coronavirus Cases a Day, adding up to 180 Million new cases by June and with 120 Million Current Cases, that’s 300 Million US Cases; reaching over a 90% Herd Immunity Rate at that pace) And at a 0.5% Death Rate we are missing only Half the Approximate Cases, and over the course of the next 180 days, with an added 50 Million Vaccinations, added with the Estimated 8 times more overall cases than the 15 Million US Officially Documented Cases, which is 120 Million, we would be at right about the bottom of what we consider Herd Immunity for Covid-19, at around 2/3rds the Population.
At a 0.5% Death Rate we can extrapolate that we are missing about half the current cases, meaning we are getting over 400,000 Cases a Day (based off the current 200,000 reported US cases a day), and multiplied by 180 days we get 72 Million added with up too 120 million cases so far, getting US at 190 Million out of 330 Million, and if I am not mistaken around 57% of the population, and if we minus 57% (60% for easy math) out of 50 Million (for the US Vaccines Scheduled by June) we get 20 Million more people with Immunity from Vaccinations added to our 190 Million, and get 210 Million Americans with various degrees of immunity out of 330 Million, which would be just shy of 2/3rds Herd Immunity, getting US right to the Point where Covid-19 herd immunity starts taking effect.
Now that last estimated series of numbers was from a 0.5% Death Rate and tying that to represent we are now only missing half the current cases, and not 8 times the cases like last Winter and Spring. But if Covid-19 has a 0.3%-0.4% Death Rate that means we are missing around 2/3rds of the cases and not half, and would add about 36 Million more cases in this quick estimate and surely bring US over 70% Herd Immunity by 6/21, with some additional cases and the next waves of vaccines bringing that number up to at least 75% if not 80%+ by the following Fall, and with no Major Mutations (which could of already happened) the Bulk of Covid-19 will be behind US, but without at least a 90% World Wide Herd Immunity, if not higher I don’t see why it would go away long term, Spanish Flu didn’t (but appears to be less deadly now as H1N1).
My Covid-19 prediction is that sometime in late winter or spring the cases start to naturally tapper off as we start getting towards Herd Immunity, and by June 2021 between Immunity from Infections or Vaccines we will be between 66% (2/3rds) to 75% (3/4ths) Covid-19 Herd Immunity in the US, well before even 25% (1/4th) the Population even has a Vaccination! And by the Time everyone who wants a Vaccine gets one (by next Fall or Winter) we will have over an 80% Herd Immunity, and at least better tolerate future variants of this Novel Coronavirus which will no longer be Novel and or New to the far Greater Part of Humanity, meaning unless it’s like Dengue Fever we will all tolerate Future Covid Strains better and theoretically they will spread less virulently because of such.
Disclaimer: the better part of the Math has been Rounded Off and Estimated and Approximated.
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